Developments in Global Energy Market and Turkmenistan - Av.Dr.Döwran OrazgylyjowJuly 26, 2016
Under the leadership of President Berdimuhammedov, Turkmenistan’s growth rate has increased more rapidly than the global economic growth rate of 2013 which was 10.2%, and it also made great progress in the field of energy. These developments will have an influence both on the local and global energy market. In Turkmenistan, huge energy projects are being implemented in the field of energy today. The first phase of industrial development of the “Galkinis” field, which is the largest natural gas field in the entire terrestrial area of the world, have been successfully completed and big facilities are made operational. Construction of the “East-West” Main Natural Gas Pipeline continues smoothly, which will contribute to security for Turkmenistan’s domestic gas supply and ensure exporting more Turkmen “blue gold” (natural gas) to global gas markets. New agreements were signed between China and Turkmenistan with the aim of constructing a new pipeline to China, and increasing the amount of natural gas exports. Moreover, new steps have been taken for the implementation of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Natural Gas Pipeline Project. Last year in the 67th General Assembly meeting, UN General Assembly Resolution 67/263 on the Stable Transit of Energy was ratified by all UN member states with Turkmenistan’s initiative. When the current situation and future perspectives of the global energy market is analyzed, it is clearly observed that new projects being implemented in Turkmenistan and current reforms are of global importance. More detailed information is available in the “BP Energy Outlook-2035, January 2014” report which was published by BP on January 15, 2014. As stated in the report, global energy market will grow 1.5% every year until 2035, and the total growth will be 41% in 2035. In this way, total volume of the global energy market will correspond to 17 billion 566 million tons of oil in just 21 years. In this period, China will account for the 26.6% of global energy consumption. It should be noted that every year China imports increasing amounts of natural gas from Turkmenistan. In 2035, 13% of global energy consumption will be used by the USA. In other words,within a short period of time such as 20 years, China will consume twice more energy than the USA. Today, China’s consumption rate is 22% while the USA’s consumption rate is 17.7%. Share of EU countries in the global energy market will decrease from 13.4% to 9% in 2035. In this period, share of India, which is expected to be one of the most important energy markets in the future, will increase from 4.5% to 7.5%. By realizing the TAPI natural gas pipeline, India wants to ensure its energy security and meet most of its natural gas demand from Turkmenistan. Everybody in the international community agrees on the fact that Turkmenistan is an “energy country”, particularly a “natural gas country”. Natural gas is one of the most important energy resources of the 21st century. Numbers prove it. A few years ago, in 1990, “black gold” (oil)was an important source which met 40% of global energy consumption. In this period, share of natural gas was 21.8% and share of coal was 27.3% in energy resources. Share of alternative energy resources, called “green gold”, which are expected to be the fuel of the future, was only 0.3% at that time. Share of “green gold” resources in the global energy market is estimated to be 6.3% in 2035, and those resources are expected to be effective in the global energy market particularly after 2050. According to estimates, share of oil, natural gas and coal in energy consumption will be 27-28% each. In this period, consumption rate of natural gas will be the fastest increasing rate among other resources. Consumption rate of oil will increase approximately 0.8% every year until 2035, and consumption rate of natural gas in this period will be twice more than oil, which will correspond to 1.9%. And consumption rate of coal will increase about 1.1% every year. In conclusion, gas market should be analyzed in terms of regions. Today Europe-Eurasia region accounts for 32.6% of global natural gas consumption. This rate will decrease to 25.7% in 2035. In this period, share of Asia-Pacific in global natural gas consumption will increase from 18.8% to 26.3%. North America’s share in global gas market will decrease from 27.4% to 15.6% in approximately 21 years. These numbers indicate that the global natural gas market shifts from the West to the East. Currently Asia’s gas map is being redrawn, and Turkmenistan gains surplus value as the most important and high-security natural gas country. Under the leadership of President Berdimuhamedov, Turkmenistan gains more prestige in the international arena and increases the welfare of Turkmen people.